In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs discuss a comprehensive portfolio update, economic update, and market update designed to help retirees and pre-retirees stay grounded during uncertain times. With headlines driving fear and optimism in equal measure, they break down how a disciplined retirement portfolio strategy and long-term investment strategy can help investors navigate volatility while staying positioned for growth. From geopolitical uncertainty to inflation pressures, this episode reinforces why planning—not prediction—is essential to secure your retirement.

Listen in to learn about how today’s economic environment connects directly to your retirement income planning and overall retirement planning process. Radon and Murs revisit the Three Bucket Strategy, explaining how a well-structured core portfolio strategy, tactical investing strategy, and exposure to alternative investments can work together to manage risk. As they explore the stock market outlook 2026, inflation and retirement concerns, and market volatility planning, you’ll gain clarity on how to plan for retirement, follow a practical retirement checklist, and ultimately focus on retiring comfortably.

In this episode, find out:

• How the Three Bucket Strategy supports risk management investing and predictable retirement income
• Why market headlines don’t always align with long-term market update realities
• How tactical investing and alternative investments can reduce portfolio volatility
• What inflation and retirement trends mean for planning retirement in 2026
• Why sticking to a disciplined retirement investment strategy matters more than ever

Tweetable Quotes:

• “You can’t control headlines or politics, but you can control your retirement plan and how much risk you take.” — Radon Stancil
• “When different parts of your portfolio have different jobs, market volatility becomes much easier to live with.” — Murs Tariq

Resources:

If you are in or nearing retirement and you want to gain clarity on what questions you should be asking, learn what the biggest retirement myths are, and identify what you can do to achieve peace of mind for your retirement, get started today by requesting our complimentary video course, Four Steps to Secure Your Retirement!

To access the course, simply visit POMWealth.net/podcast.

Here’s the full transcript:

Welcome, everyone, to secure your retirement podcast. And we’re excited.

Murs and I are always excited when we get to have the special guests we have on

today, which is Tom Siomades. So, before we get into anything here, Tom, I just want

to say thank you for hopping back on the podcast with us today. We appreciate it.

Hey, glad to be here. Happy New Year. I know it’s almost February, but, you know,

happy New Year’s just the same. Yeah, as we record this today, we just had our big

ice storm here in the Raleigh, Durham area. Actually, the whole, I guess,

nation’s gotten hit by this storm, almost, the East Coast at least, and in the

middle of the country with lots of snow and real cold weather. But Murs and I are

working from home, and you’re out there in Kansas, and looks like you’ve got some

snow on the ground, too, and everybody’s dealing with this cold weather. But what we

wanted to do, and what we like to do, Tom, whenever we have you on, is just

really kind of look at things from a big macroeconomic perspective.

And right now, we are…

year of up markets, right? Which again, if you look at what happened last year, you

would have never thought that it would have been an up year, right? I mean, you

know, the new administration came in, you had the tariff meltdown, and then you had

the wrap up again, your government shutdown, etc., but I

think last year was sort of an example of where people need to sort of focus and

remain discipline because there was ample opportunity to throw in the cards, right?

Because there’s a lot of panicky type stuff that could have gotten you off of the

mark, right? So, it goes to show you that, you know, the markets, you know, often,

you know, defy what logic would say. And this year is no different, right? I mean,

here we were supposed to start the year off. Supposed to be the big beautiful bill

was supposed to come into effect and the economy is growing, but I don’t know

anybody that had Maduro on their dance card, right, you know, at the beginning of

the year. So that kind of happened. And then you’ve got all this like civil address

going on and the whole Greenland thing just kind of, and that’s just January. All

right? It already feels like, I kind of like, and I was joking about it the other

day, I kind of tell them, telling people, I need to start writing year in review

articles for just the month of January. So, it just seems like all this stuff is

kind of ratcheted up. That doesn’t mean, you know, anything other than I look at a

couple of indicators, right? If you have a Santa Claus rally going into the

holidays, that’s well for the upcoming year because the momentum comes forward.

If you have a first strong week in January, that bodes well. And then the

trifectas, if you have a strong January, that bodes well from the market of the

year. That’s just sort of the way things play out. But, you know, it’s anybody’s

guess where we go from here. GDP’s been strong. I understand our fourth quarter GDP

is expected to be strong. Again, you’re going to have some money coming into the

system via enhanced tax refunds. So, it feels like it’s stacking up to be good,

but it’s kind of crazy that we’ve had everything that we’ve had so far this year.

Yeah, I think just when it starts to feel like it’s stacking up to be good,

there’s that inevitable messaging that comes across that can jar the markets a little

bit. So, you know, in January, we’ve had, well, go back to April of last year when

the beginning conversations of tariffs kind of came about in 2025. And then, you

know, that took several months to get settled out. And once we thought we were kind

of past that a little bit from the negotiation aspect of it, here in January, this

whole conversation around Greenland and Europe has come back into the forefront around

tariffs and stuff. So, let’s just talk about that for a little bit. Maybe for a

second there, maybe just kind of recap the Greenland scenario. And then also,

you know, how do you see this playing out? What do we need to be thinking about

there from the terror side? I get it. He said the same thing. There are legitimate

reasons for national security purposes. If you look at like people look at Greenland

and they think to themselves, you know, what is this place? But if you look at it

from the top of the globe, it’s pretty interesting, right? It pretty much is

literally like a dagger that goes in between us and Europe, right? And the fact of

the matter is it is strategically important. Now, how he’s gone about highlighting

its strategic importance and the rhetoric around it isn’t really constructive. But I

find it like really rich and ironic that Europe sent soldiers over to Greenland.

And isn’t that kind of tell you that it’s not probably defended if they have to

send people from over there to defend it, right? So, he’s kind of got a backward

point there. But, you know, at the end of the day, he got upset because the NATO

members weren’t supporting acquisition. And so, he threatened them with tariffs.

And then we had this whole, you know, crazy Monday last week where we sold off

nearly a thousand points. And then somehow, you know, behind the scenes, a new

framework was, I don’t think we’re going to get anything other than we already have.

We’ll probably get more in military installations there and maybe have a little more

autonomy with that. But I think it was a huge sort of, it was almost like a mini,

like a mini liberation day scenario like we had last year. Remember, it was like he

came out and he hit everybody with the tariffs and then the market just melted off

and then just as quickly he backed off and then the market came back, right? And

that was kind of like a mini version of that last week. Oh my God, we’re going to

hit Europe with tariffs. And that came on. And then all of a sudden, you know, we

had a framework. And two days later, we were right back to where we were. So

again, you blink, you missed it. But I don’t, you know,

I don’t know about you, but I’m not looking for property in Greenland. It’s not a

place, not after the cold we’ve got here this week. Thank you very much. Yeah.

Well, you know, something that we were talking about just briefly that we’re also

seeing right now is, and again, this is something is one of those things that could

happen here in the first part of the year and kind of fizzle out. But, you know,

what we’ve seen here is in particularly with natural gas having a big surge over

the last few days. And in fact, I was looking at it, and it didn’t even look like

it’s going to slow down even right now. What do you think is going on with that

as far as, I mean, I’ve got some theories, but I kind of hear your side of things

as to what are you seeing in that area right now as far as what’s happening there?

Well, as far as natural gas pricing? Yeah, yeah. Well, I think a lot of it’s got

to be this weather, right? I mean, you know, when you give a forecast that it’s

going to be, you know, negative degrees through across most of the country. I mean,

that usually spikes over the course of that. But, you know, my understanding was

that there was going to be more energy coming online, right, and things we’re going

to get cheaper, and that’s sort of the lies that, right? So, like, I’d be curious

to see what you’re thinking as far as what your theory is with this. No, I just,

I had, you know, looked at some things here recently that talked about the fact

that it looks like that the administration’s going to Do some fast tracking on some

permitting on some lands to allow for more exploration and a little bit more, I

guess, going after that part of the thing because of the energy that’s going to be

needed right now with all of the things going on with AI and different things that

are got to be created. And it was basically around this idea that other parts, like

you take China, has really done a lot to increase their energy production, whereas

the United States really has not done a lot to increase their energy production. And

if you look at what all the things that are happening within the AI world of all

the energy that’s going to be needed and all of the infrastructure there, we’re a

little bit behind on that when it comes to energy production as far as the increase

of that. Yeah, so I don’t disagree with any of that, but the stuff that they’re

supposed to do is supposed to lower prices, right? It’s supposed to make it more

affordable, right? The fact that, you know, the whole Venezuela thing, if their oil

comes online, for example, right, theoretically that, that was sanctioned oil,

so that could be, you know, additive to decreasing the price of oil, right? The

hubbub and Iran that we’ve got going on, if that regime somehow is replaced and

their oil then becomes marketable, right? Those are two places. Now, I understand

that the administration wants to create more energy, but if we’re not seeing it,

but I think, you know, natural gas prices and heating oil and things like that,

they just naturally spike in the winter anyway. And I think this past week, I just

think you may have some people that are, you know, try to take a little advantage

of the fact that we’re going to have some cold weather here for a little bit. So

the idea of affordability keeps coming up and, you know, getting prices back down

and you’re getting, you’re continuing to have this divide of people that just can’t

afford living normal lives these days. And then you’ve got the divide of the wealthy

that you’re even starting to see, you know, they’re not shopping as much as more

anymore. Let’s say not the ultra -wealthy, but the high net worth. So, affordability

is still creeping in. I know we were at a conference, and, you know,

that continues to be the theme for the year that was spoke a lot about. So, what

are your thoughts as far as the issues with, you know, we got some rate cuts at

the end of 2025.

There are still the battle and Powell and Trump going on.

He’s probably leaving this year, but there’s a lot of people on his side saying you

can’t do what you’re doing to him in sense of some of the legal action that’s been

taken against Powell. So how do you see all this playing out this year from two

perspectives? One, what’s going to happen to Powell, the other? Affordability for the

consumer and costs and CPI and everything like that. Okay, so I’ll talk the Powell

one.

Listen, we know they don’t like each other, okay? And simply because Powell has not

bent to Trump’s whims as far as lowering rates, okay?

We get that. But, you know, Powell’s not an angel either. I mean, he’s done some

things in the past that could have been perceived political, right? So needless to

say, you know, without getting overly into the weeds with this thing, the two don’t

like each other. To me, the whole criminal thing is just, you know, it’s, it’s a

complication that’s unnecessary. How can be replaced in May? Why do you want to make

the guy a martyr and then alienate people that would vote for whoever? Does anyone

really genuinely think that the next person that Trump appoints to the Fed is going

to not do what Trump tells them to do? Right? That’s, so with that as a backdrop,

I could definitely see markets probably coming or as far as the Fed goes. Rates

probably get lower. I’ll probably go as far as three times by this year.

CPI were stuck around just below three, not really going anywhere and not really

improving. It’s better than it was years ago, you know, a couple of years ago. But

here’s the way I look at like the pricing and affordability is think about like

what happened to our market three or four years ago and the economy is like taking

a bucket of water and dumping it out, okay? That happens quick and it’s there.

You’ve got to mess on the floor. Now picture trying to like to mop up that water with

a sponge and you’re constantly like just picking it all up and putting it to try

and you’re never going to get the same amount of water first of all back into the

bucket and it’s going to take a long time. That’s kind of what’s happened with. We

got inflation and it’s coming down, but all of those embedded costs, rents,

salaries, all of those things are embedded into, you know, it’s going to be hard

for you to have a restaurant or somebody and tell your employees that you’re paying

now paying $20 an hour that you got back to work that they’re going to have to

take less. So, we’re just going to have to deal with the fact that prices are not

going to return back to where they were in 2019 or 2020. That said, I think,

you know, the best way for us to get out of this mess is to actually grow the

economy while trying to contain costs, right? And, you know, I sort of cynically

always say, like, when has anybody ever not complained that prices are too high?

When has anyone ever complained that they don’t, that they make too much money,

right? So that’s a human thing, but I can see where wages haven’t kept up,

right, and things have become more expensive for people, right? But I also look like

anecdotally around, it’s like every restaurant around here in Kansas City is full all

the time. You go into the stores, people that are buying stuff. So, you know, at

one point in time do you look at it, and you think to yourself, how much of this

is just, you know, and you have to be careful because you can’t tell people, you

can’t pinch someone, and when they say, Al, you say it doesn’t hurt, right? And

that’s, I think we’ve got to this point where people have always complained about

prices and not having enough money, but in reality, they do have some level of,

I guess, validity, right? Because wages haven’t kept up. So, you can’t expect

everything to come back down to where it was because then you would be cheering for

a bad recession, people losing homes, businesses closing. That’s how prices would go

down. You just hope prices can stay where they are right now and people start

making more money because the economy is growing. And at 4 .4 GDP and Q3 and

they’re saying maybe five, if we can keep that going and people can make more

money, that may alleviate some of it, but it’s going to take time. So that’s kind

of, that’s kind of my theory on that, but again, there are probably somebody has a

different way they’d look at it. Yeah, I did hear, I was, I forget which podcasts

I was listening to, but they were talking about housing. And, you know, for the

longest time, you had way more people that owned houses that had the lower interest

rates, you know, the sub 4 % interest rates. And by the end of 2025,

that had flipped to where you’ve got more people owning higher interest rate

mortgages than lower interest rate mortgages. So those, you know, a lot of people

didn’t want to move because they didn’t want to go from a 3 % mortgage to a 6 %

mortgage, but eventually people had to buy houses. And so, you have more than have 6

% mortgages in the three today. So, I think that the good side of that is people

are more likely. There’s going to be more turnover in the housing markets. There’s

going to be more availability. And inventory was a big issue a couple years ago. I

think that’s going to change a little bit. Any thoughts on that and where mortgage

rates go from here for the person that’s still kind of waiting to buy because it’s

still so very expensive? Yeah, I think I think rates do come down, but it’s really

not, like, you have to look at it from a perspective of historically 6 % mortgage

rates are not crazy, right? I mean, I tell the story about my dad, right? He built

a house in 78, and his mortgage rate was 14%. So,

you know, if you’re coming from it near term for where we are right now, you know,

your near-term experiences, yeah, like rates were next to nothing after the financial

crisis, right? And then, you know, you could get a low mortgage. I don’t think that

we go back down to a 3 % mortgage rate, right? But at the same time,

I think maybe a more natural rate would be somewhere around four and a half to

five and a half percent. And I guess that’s fair for something, for a 30 year

investment for a lot of people. The bigger problem, honestly, is from the

affordability standpoint is just the pricing of homes, right? I mean, home prices

have gone up like crazy. And you mentioned it a second ago, like, let’s lean on

the supply side, right? Start making more homes. I think a lot of home builders and

developers stepped away after the financial crisis, right? And you had all of those

homes that had, you know, people mailing in their keys and walking away from them.

And I think that the demand hasn’t kept up. So that’s, that to me is another one.

And I don’t know if you guys know about this, but like something like a quarter

percent of the price of a new home is all regulations and permitting. So,

you know, can we do something there? Yeah, it’d be nice to lower prices of homes

and make them a little more affordable. If you’re a young couple, you know, you’re

late 20s, early 30s and don’t have a kid, you know, it’s kind of hard to, you

know, even if you don’t have a kid, you’re both working, try to, you know, spread

things together to buy $500 ,000 house. It’s a lot. So, you know, it’s twofold.

It’s not just the mortgage rates, right? It’s also the just sheer price of a house.

So, yeah. So, you know, one of the things that we like to always include in on

these discussions with you, Tom, is, you know, we understand we always put that

disclosure out there. We’re not going to hold you to it or anything. But if you

had to, if you sit here in the first part of the year and you kind of had to go

out in your own thoughts, how do you think 2026 is going to play out?

What are some of the things you think is you look at where things are today? If

you had to say, hey, here’s some things I think we’re going to probably see this

year. What would be some of those things you think we’re going to see? Yeah, I

think That’s, yeah, that’s always, that’s always tricky, right? I mean, because you’re

trying to forecast and, you know, it’s just forecasting is a fancy word for

guessing, right? I know there’s some certainties out there, right? We’re going to

have an election, so you’re going to have all the hubbub that on the midterms,

right? There’s the other certainty that you have is just the uncertainty of the

Trump administration, right? Like, what are they going to focus next, right? Is

Greenland going to come back? Is, you know, Iran going to fall apart? Do we bomb

Iran? Do we not? You know that kind of thing. You know, those are the geopolitical

stuff because you never know, right? Trump will just step in front of a microphone

and say something. And the next thing you know, that becomes the driver, right?

Earnings should be good. GDP should be growing. People are going to get money back,

more money back because of the, because of the quirks of the tax bill, so it’ll

appear that they’re getting more money back. I still think the market is on pace to

probably clock in, not as good as a year as it did the past couple of years,

but I’d still say double digits, so maybe like 7 ,700 on the S &P.

So again, the big thing is going to be is your patients will be tested, right? There’s

going to be, again, just like last year, opportunities for you, government shutdowns,

and we may have one at the end of this week for all we know, right? You just,

these things are just keep coming fast and furious, and at the end of the day, you

just have to make sure that your plan is such that it can withstand this stuff.

And that’s why I think it’s important that clients, you know, check in with you

regularly, right? I mean, you guys need to make sure that we can’t, we can’t keep

up with this nano technology where guys are like planting, you know,

their little trade centers, 30 feet in front of the other guy to make, you know,

to make quicker trades. We can’t do that. We don’t have that capacity, right? But

we do have the capacity of a long -term perspective and a plant. So, I think to me,

those are the more important aspects that you can, you can control what you can

control, but you can’t control what Trump’s going to say or what happens

internationally or, you know, or geopolitically or what happens in an election. But

you can’t control your plan. So that’s my advice again is double down on the

planning and make sure you’re comfortable with the level of the risk you have

because we will have volatility this year and you will be, you know, kind of

frantic at times wondering like, you know, testing yourself about whether you did the

right thing or not. Right. Yeah. I mean, if you think about the last five years or

since 2020 in the pandemic and then the election change, you know, inflation issues,

interest rate, tariffs, geopolitical, all these different things that all point towards

how’s it possible we’ve had a really good run over the last five years market wise.

We’ve only had one bad year, which is 22. outside of that, everything else has been

double digits. So, you know, there are going to be issues. There is going to be

volatility. There are going to be headlines that jar the markets. But we talk about

it all the time on this podcast, Tom, about the investment strategy, you know,

thinking that through sticking to the plan, having different assets working for you

in different ways. We call them buckets. So, I think you hit it right on because we

just never know how the year is going to play out and we never know what what’s

really going to be coming our way from a headline’s perspective and you know news

that can shock the market it so um well tom we really appreciate your time here

today we love having you on listeners love here in your perspective um because

you’re in it every single day so thanks a lot for carving out some time here with us today tom oh thanks very much and again happy new year everybody.