In this episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs discuss the SpaceX IPO and what retirement-age investors need to think about before making any decision with their savings. SpaceX began trading on June 12, 2026, at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in stock market history, and the questions from clients started pouring in almost immediately. Rather than telling you whether SpaceX is a good or bad investment, Radon and Murs walk through a clear, honest framework for making sure whatever you decide is driven by your retirement plan and not the noise of the moment.

Listen in to learn about the real data behind how major IPOs have historically performed in their first year of trading, why your 401(k) or IRA may already be buying SpaceX without any action on your part, and the three questions every retiree should answer before putting retirement savings into any newly public company. Whether SpaceX is on your radar or you are simply trying to build better habits around big investment decisions, this episode gives you the tools to think clearly when the headlines get loud.

In this episode, find out:

• What SpaceX actually is as a business, which of its three divisions is profitable today, and why the $1.75 trillion valuation is priced on the future rather than current earnings
• What the last 30 major IPOs over the past 15 years reveal about first-year performance, including an average maximum drawdown of 50% to 55% and why it happens around the six-month mark
• Why index rule changes mean millions of Americans may already be picking up SpaceX exposure through their existing 401(k) and IRA index funds
• The critical difference between making a trade and making a long-term investment, and why that distinction should shape the entire decision for anyone nearing or already in retirement
• Three questions to ask before buying any IPO, starting with the one that eliminates most bad decisions before they happen

Tweetable Quotes:

“You can believe in a company and still decide that buying it at IPO price in week one isn’t where your retirement money belongs.” – Radon Stancil

“Waiting twelve months to buy a stock you plan to hold for fifteen years is not missing out. It is just a longer on-ramp, and it might come with a significantly better price.” – Murs Tariq

Resources: If you are in or nearing retirement and you want to gain clarity on what questions you should be asking, learn what the biggest retirement myths are, and identify what you can do to achieve peace of mind for your retirement, get started today by requesting our complimentary video course, Four Steps to Secure Your Retirement!

Here’s the full transcript:

Welcome back, everyone, and thanks for tuning in on this Monday. We’ve got a great one for you 

today. 

talk in the news about SpaceX and the IPO and a lot of client questions coming our way and other 

advisors that we’re friends with asking, you know, what are you guys doing? And so, I wanted to kind 

of just take a minute to take a step back and let’s just talk about IPOs in general and how they 

historically have operated and kind of build a framework around a decision that I think is one that 

is enticing. the decision of, do I buy SpaceX when it does come out? There’s some band wagoning 

that’s happening here, some fear of missing out that’s happening here. And at the end of the day, 

where I was actually at a conference not too long ago and listened to a fund manager. 

And I think from everything that I’m going to say, it kind of boils down to, are you making a trade 

on SpaceX? Or are you… in SpaceX those are two different things a trade is a in most cases a 

quick turnaround for just trying to play the market and make some money in a short period of time 

whereas investing most people look at investing as long-term investing and do i believe in the 

company and do i want to get in early and take that risk of where it could go but if i believe that 

it is a has a long-term value then maybe it could be worth it i can’t answer that question for you 

So yeah, that’s the gist of what we’re going to be talking about today on the podcast is SpaceX and 

the hype around it. SpaceX going public here in June in 2026. 

And it’s just an amazing number to hear. I’m sure you’ve heard it already. It’s all over the news, 

the media, the radio, everything right now is talking about this insane valuation that SpaceX is 

going to come in at. Somewhere between $1.75 trillion, upwards of $2 trillion is what the 

valuation is. And the largest IPO in history, which is, while it’s an astronomical number, 

it’s also… a number that I think we’re going to start seeing more of. Right behind SpaceX, 

there’s the potential of two other very large companies that people have heard about, 

one being OpenAI. OpenAI is known for ChatGPT, but they’ve also got a lot of other things going on. 

And Anthropic, who is known for the AI Claude, both have the opportunity to start that process for 

also, IPO-ing this year. So, I think those numbers are going to be pretty substantial as well, 

upwards in the trillions too. And so, one thing I want to be very clear about here today is I’m not 

here to tell you that SpaceX is a good or bad investment. That’s not what today’s all about. 

What I want you to think about is, and with any other IPO that comes our way, especially as they 

get bigger and bigger, that we’re making clear-headed decisions around the financial plan and not 

emotional ones. So, let’s just start with the basics of what SpaceX is in the picture. 

I think a lot of people hear SpaceX and picture rockets and Elon Musk and assume… it’s worth 

understanding what you’re actually buying if you put money into this company. 

SpaceX has three business areas. There’s Starlink, which is the most popular one that people know 

about. And it also happens to be the only one that’s making money of the three as far as profitable 

revenue. Starlink is that satellite internet service. You know, the rocket’s going up, 

rocket’s coming back down. But then there’s also a space operations division and then an AI 

division. And currently those are still very much in the innovation phase and they’re growing those 

legs. But, you know, one of the things that SpaceX believes is possible alongside Elon is the 

ability to get to Mars and actually start to live on Mars. So that is a big long-term goal of the 

company. But there’s no profitability on those two legs of the business yet. 

It’s really Starlink that’s the one that’s making money. So, when you hear about a $2 trillion 

valuation, just know that a lot of that number is based on what people believe SpaceX could become, 

not what it’s earning right now. And the market is pricing in a future that hasn’t really happened 

yet, which is where some of the, I guess, the word of caution could come to play with this 

particular type of IPO. And I think the same is going to be true with Anthropic and OpenAI if they 

end up going public as well. A lot of it’s going to be based off of what could happen with these 

companies based off of what their goal is. But that’s a lot of what ifs to reach these massive, 

massive valuations. And, you know, it could play out the way that everyone hopes from where I sit. 

I think the three companies are incredibly innovative. They’ve got a lot going for them, 

and they’re really leaders in their industry. So, you know, could everything come true and we end 

up on Mars and all these three companies are kind of running the tech space? Could it be true and 

the valuation ends up being even higher down the road? That’s a possibility. Could it also have a 

lot of issues along the way that could make this $2 trillion valuation incredibly overvalued? 

Well, that’s just the thing is that that’s how the stock market works and that’s how investing 

works and there’s a risk and reward. 

So, let’s just talk a little bit about history of IPOs. And I’m not going to go deep into history, 

but I did pull some data on the last 30 major IPOs that have happened over the last 15 years. 

And I think the data here is really important. And most people haven’t seen it. You hear the 

headlines of the cool companies and the names that do IPO. And then we kind of don’t spend as much 

time understanding how they operated within that first year of going public. And then, 

you know, was it a good launch? Was it a bad launch? Was there a lot of volatility involved? And so 

what we see historically is the first month. And again, this is a limited 30 companies over the 

last 15 years, but they’re large IPOs. The first month actually looks decent. 

Median returns in that 3% to 4%, so nothing fantastic. But the first few months is there has been 

an uptick in the stock pricing because I think a lot of the hype around and everybody wanting to 

get in as it becomes available on the platforms. 

And people feel good about their decision that they got in early. But then something happens around 

the six-month mark. By six months, the median return drops to a negative 9%. 

So, we’re kind of in this positive three to four. And then now we’re down to about a negative 9%. 

And here’s the big one is there’s an average maximum drawdown. 

So, what that means is from… peak price of the company to the low price that it hit in a period of 

time. And if we look at the average maximum drawdown in a one year from IPO, 

the average has kind of been in this 50 to 55 percent window, 

a negative drawdown of that much, which is pretty substantial. 

I’m going to say that again because I think it’s worth sitting with. On average, major IPOs lost 

more than half their value at some point in the first year. Not every one of them, 

but that’s the average. And if you’re 62 years old and that’s a meaningful piece of your savings, 

that could matter tremendously. And so just in the data right there, 

if we are leaning towards getting involved with some of these IPOs that are coming our way, 

We need to be very careful of how much, right? The question of yes or no, do we do it? 

But then the next big question of how much, because there is historically a tremendous amount of 

volatility that comes, especially in the first year. And, you know, the reason why it happens is 

think about the people who have built these companies and a lot of their compensation structures 

have been built on a stock. They’ve been granted stock, stock options, restricted stock units, 

RSUs, a handful of different ways that they’re compensated through equity in the company. And 

they’re also limited to what they can do with it, mainly because it’s not public yet. 

So, it’s not easily tradable or they’re restricted from trading it. But when a company goes public, 

there are guidelines and timelines as far as when you can start as an employee of the firm, 

start selling. And usually, it ends up being around six months. Well, the data that I just shared 

with you is that, you know, by the six-month time frame, we’re seeing drawdowns starting to 

happen. And they’re somewhat linked together, 

I would say. So, let’s just imagine for a second you’re one of these young employees that has been 

at SpaceX for a while and you’ve accumulated a good amount of stock. And now you’ve got this 

business valuation that’s backing. And so, your stock value and price have gone up tremendously. 

Although to you, it feels like it’s on paper because you’re not in a public place that provides 

liquidity yet. But all of a sudden, you go public and what we are going to see is a lot of these 

employees becoming millionaires and double-digit millionaires overnight just because of how much 

equity they have in the company. And so, any prudent, reasonable investor would say, 

well, I can’t have 99% or 98% of my worth in one stock. So, no matter how much I care about the 

company, unless you are someone like an Elon that owns a lot of it, prudent investing would say, 

I need to start diversifying away. And when that six-month window opens… And the restrictions 

start to get released. That’s where we start to see the drawdown as people within the company and 

people that own large portions of the company are going to start liquidating and selling. And so 

naturally, the stock price starts to trend down. So, it’s just something to think about there. 

At six months out, only about 43% of the major IPOs are positive. 

So again, that’s about almost a coin flip that they are positive six months out from their IPO. 

And I know that there’s been some very incredibly successful ones, and I’m not saying, again, that 

SpaceX could not be or could be. That’s not what I’m saying. I just think there’s a lot of evidence 

in the data to not make a rash emotional decision. I come back to what I said earlier, is are we 

making a trade or are we investing in the company? If we’re making a trade, 

well, there could be moments of volatility to make some short-term plays. And if you’re a day 

trader or something like that, then there could be a lot of opportunity. But if you believe in the 

company, you like where it’s headed, and you want to invest in it long-term, that’s a completely 

different decision. 

I think something else that’s not being talked about is the funds that are going to end up… 

having exposure to these companies like SpaceX. So, think about the ETFs, 

the exchange traded funds and the mutual funds, and even the index funds and retirement plans and 

things like that. Eventually, as SpaceX gets added to the index, well, 

if you’re in index funds, it has to represent the index itself. And so eventually SpaceX will be 

added to your investment portfolio if you own that index that it’s in. which is a NASDAQ. 

So, if you didn’t think about that and you are actually, 

maybe you’re an incredibly passive investor that has a bunch of different index-based funds or 

ETFs and maybe there is a lot of overlap, you could end up owning more SpaceX than you even thought 

about. And on top of that, maybe you decide to go buy. SpaceX as an individual position as well. 

And now you’ve just added even more exposure to a company. So, I think that’s important to think 

about a little bit is in my portfolio, the way it sits today, 

will I already get exposure to SpaceX? Because the thing about when you buy in funds, 

ETFs, mutual funds, index funds, you don’t have a say as far as what stocks go into it. 

you get whatever the index fund needs to match the allocation of the index. 

So, if SpaceX inherently is going to be one of the largest holdings in the NASDAQ because of its 

valuation, it’s going to end up being one of the larger holdings in the index funds that carried 

and the ETS and the mutual funds that choose to carry it as well. And so… 

would encourage someone to think about how their portfolio is already set up to automatically get 

this exposure once it gets added into the funds itself. But there is always any type of investing, 

whether it’s investing as you’re building up your work, as you’re transitioning into retirement, 

and then also the momentum that can come and go, 

if you remember years ago, around… 

GameStop. And that’s where this idea of fear of missing out came from and momentum investing and 

sticking it to the man and all that stuff. GameStop was one where there was no basis at all to buy 

it, but there was a big following behind it. And that’s why people bought it and drove the price 

up. And there’s a whole story around that. But there’s the emotional side is what I’m getting at, 

the emotional side. And I want to talk about that feeling for a second because I think it’s 

important. We had a client call us not long ago wanting to talk about SpaceX and was it a good 

thing to think about adding to the portfolio. And what they said, well, this is really the reason 

for telling this story is I’ve heard a lot of people talking about it and I just don’t want to miss 

out on this one. And, you know, I hear that. I completely understand that these are names people 

know, companies they believe in, and they’re a very human feeling of wanting to be a part of 

something that feels like the future. And, you know, when you hear about SpaceX and what they want 

to do and where they’re going to go and put us on Mars and, you know, change the face of Internet 

and data centers out in the space and these things that, you know, 10, 15 years ago were not in 

anyone’s brain. And now it’s all we talk about. And you want to be part of it. I think. There’s 

nothing wrong with that. But it’s worth separating that feeling from the actual decision. The 

question I always ask is, is this a good company or is this the right decision for your plan right 

now? Because those are different questions. You can believe in SpaceX or Anthropic or OpenAI as 

companies and still decide that buying them at IPO price in week one isn’t where your retirement 

money belongs. believing in a company and owning it at any price at any time are not the same thing 

and there’s a difference between long-term conviction and the fear of missing out uh one is 

strategy and the other one is emotion and so you know i mean I don’t think there’s a never, 

never buy this. I don’t think there’s ever a never buy of any investment out there. 

I think there’s always reason to question and think about what is good for my plan and, you know, 

what do I want to take a little bit more risk on and where do I want to be a little bit more 

conservative? But, I mean, just think about the potential of waiting for a second. 

If most IPOs, even the big names, have volatility in the first year and some experience a 50 

drawdown and you happen to like and feel convicted about this uh the journey of SpaceX and 

where you think they could go or anthropic or open ai well would you rather buy it at the 

beginning and go through that 50 downside uh max drawdown that’s experienced in the first year or 

would you maybe want to wait it out and just kind of see how it moves before you get in 

and now have that long-term conviction with it because you again you like the company and you want 

to invest in it for the long term so just a little bit of food for thought there so before i wrap 

up i want to leave you with three questions and these aren’t just for SpaceX I would say use these 

every time that any type of IPO or any type of fear of missing out type of scenario comes around. 

Question one is, is this money I won’t need for at least five years? If there’s any chance, you’ll 

need it for income or expenses before then, the kind of volatility that comes with a newly public 

company just may not be worth it. It’s probably not a fit for your portfolio. Question two, 

do I actually understand what I’m buying? Not just the name and the excitement around it, but do I 

actually, understand what I’m buying? If I’m going to buy a company for the long term, I want to 

know a little bit more than just the name and what their general purpose is. I would want to 

understand that company. a little bit more, which is going to help build my conviction. And so when 

there is an emotional rollercoaster or a stock market rollercoaster around that particular stock, 

your conviction can be there that, yeah, I did the research and I still maintain that I believe in 

them long term. And then question three, how much of my overall plan is this? A small intentional 

amount in the longer-term growth portion of your portfolio. you know, is a completely different 

conversation than putting a meaningful slice of your retirement savings into something that could 

experience a 50% loss within the first year just based off of the history. You know, 

when cryptocurrencies back in, say, 2020 to 2021 took a lot of media and headlines and everyone 

said, you got to buy Bitcoin, it’s the next big thing. 

We still kind of took the same stance that we take on getting into an IPO, which is it needs to be 

a portion. If you’re going to invest in it, it shouldn’t be a tremendous portion of your overall 

net worth. You know, for most of our clients, we kind of kept that recommendation for 

cryptocurrencies to really know more than 2% to 3% of your liquid net worth. Not because it 

doesn’t have a future, but because of how volatile it is and how speculative it is. So, I go back to 

SpaceX. While it has a little bit more backing of what it can do, and it’s not such an unknown 

than, say, cryptocurrencies, but a lot of the valuation is based off of something that’s probably 

going to take them tens of years to figure out. And is it all possible? I think it is. 

I hope it’s all possible. It sounds just talking about the idea of space exploration and the way 

that they talk about is something that I hope does come to fruition. 

But again, it becomes one of those things of how much. So, I am convicted. I think it’s a long term 

buy. But how much of my portfolio am I willing to risk? And really, the answer needs to be 

something that’s not going to change my life, something that’s not going to uproot my retirement 

income plan, something that’s not going to make me think about having to go back to work because I 

made a bet on this company. You know, make bets on the companies when you’re in your 20s, 30s and 

40s. When you start to transition and you build up the wealth. and you know how long and how hard 

it took savings and the dedication and the trade-offs to get to where you are so that you can 

retire comfortably, or you are retired and you are living comfortably, now may not be the time to 

take those big bets as you get closer to it. So again, this was really one that I think it would, 

with SpaceX around the horizon as far as IPO and… 

And all the talk and the chatter, and it seems like the next best thing to hop into. 

I think regardless of what happens, do your due diligence. If you’d like to talk to us, 

we’re happy to have a conversation with you about, hey, what could be the right amount based off of 

my net worth and my liquid investment worth and my financial plan? 

What could be the right amount? That’s not going to be detrimental to me but do the research. and 

And be convicted if you want to be convicted but the big story here is don’t make that 

emotional buy-in that I think a lot of people are going to do and potentially regret of why 

everyone else is doing it so why shouldn’t I well I hope you got something out of this today uh and 

As always, if you want to have a conversation with us at Peace of Mind Wealth Management, we are 

happy to do so. Whether it’s around SpaceX or your portfolio or what a financial plan looks like, 

all those different things that we talk about on the podcast, we are happy to engage with you. 

Easiest way to do so, head to our website, POMwealth.net, and you’ll be able to set up a call with 

one of our advisors. And from there, we’ll be able to determine if there is something that we can 

do to help you out. And we’d be very happy and honored to have that conversation with you. 

But until then, thanks for tuning in. And we will talk to you again next Monday. Take care. If you 

would like to find more information about Peace of Mind Wealth Management, we invite you to visit 

our website at POMwealth.net. If you go to the contact page and contact us, we’ll send you a free 

copy of our book, The Peace of Mind Pathway. It lays out our process from beginning to end.