January 27, 2025 Weekly Update

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We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage. Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for January 27, 2025

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE UPDATE

2025 Considerations About the Economy

Radon Stancil and Murs Tariq discuss: The current state of the economy as we move into 2025. Joined by Tom Siomades, a chief marketing economist, they analyze how the election results, policy changes, and global events are influencing the stock market trends and broader economic outlook. Tom highlights key market trends, including the resilience of the stock market, the impact of energy policies, and the potential for economic growth amidst regulatory and political shifts….
CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST
 
CLICK HERE TO WATCH ON YOUTUBE

2025 Considerations About the Economy

This blog explores the key insights shared by Tom Siomades, Chief Market Economist, during a recent podcast episode. With a blend of expertise, predictions, and candid observations, Tom’s analysis sheds light on what we might expect for the U.S. economy in 2025…
CLICK HERE TO READ THE BLOG

2025 Economy Considerations

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The economic outlook for 2025 has many individuals, businesses, and investors contemplating the future. With political shifts, market trends, and global changes influencing our financial landscape, the coming year promises to be both challenging and exciting. This blog explores the key insights shared by Tom Siomades, Chief Market Economist, during a recent podcast episode. With a blend of expertise, predictions, and candid observations, Tom’s analysis sheds light on what we might expect for the U.S. economy in 2025.

2024: A Year of Patience and Resilience

Before delving into 2025, it’s essential to reflect on 2024. According to Tom, 2024 was a year characterized by patience. It was a time when economic forecasts evolved significantly:

  • Interest Rates: Early predictions of multiple interest rate cuts shifted, leaving rates higher than initially expected. Despite this, the market showed resilience.
  • Inflation: Persistent inflation created uncertainty, yet the economy avoided a steep recession.
  • Stock Market Trends: Against all odds, the stock market experienced robust growth, with the S&P 500 recording 57 all-time highs.

Investors who maintained a long-term, patient approach reaped the benefits. For those who exited the market prematurely, opportunities were missed. This serves as a critical reminder for 2025: staying the course can be key in times of uncertainty.

Political Shifts and Economic Implications

With a new administration taking office in 2025, the U.S. economy is entering a phase of potential policy change. A Republican-led government may bring less regulation and a more business-friendly environment. Here’s what to consider:

1. Reduced Regulations

One of the hallmarks of the incoming administration is the push for deregulation. Small businesses, in particular, stand to benefit. For example:

  • A homebuilder noted that 24% of a home’s cost is tied to regulations. Easing such burdens could lower costs and stimulate economic growth.
  • Reduced red tape might allow businesses to allocate more resources toward expansion and hiring.

2. Energy Policy and Inflation

Energy remains a pivotal factor in inflation and economic stability. A focus on increasing energy exploration and reducing costs could:

  • Lower production and transportation expenses.
  • Make energy more dependable and affordable, benefiting consumers and industries alike.

As Tom highlighted, energy costs are embedded in everything from manufacturing to distribution. Addressing this issue could significantly ease inflationary pressures.

Stock Market Trends: Broadening Out

In recent years, market growth has largely been driven by a handful of tech giants. Companies like NVIDIA, which capitalized on the AI boom, played a significant role in propelling the S&P 500. However, 2025 may see a “broadening out” of market growth.

What Does “Broadening Out” Mean?

  • Growth expanding beyond tech and large-cap companies.
  • More sectors and smaller companies contributing to overall market performance.

This shift, fueled by deregulation and a favorable business climate, could create a more balanced and resilient market. For investors, diversifying portfolios to include smaller and mid-cap companies may prove beneficial.

To learn more, read the article “How to Retire at 62: All the Numbers You Need to Know“.

Inflation vs. Interest Rates: Are We on the Right Path?

Inflation continues to be a pressing concern for consumers and policymakers alike. While official data may suggest a decline, everyday expenses like groceries and housing tell a different story. Tom’s insights provide valuable context:

  • Challenges in Reaching the 2% Target: Energy costs and government spending remain significant hurdles. Without addressing these issues, achieving the Federal Reserve’s inflation target will be difficult.
  • Consumer Perception vs. Reality: Many consumers feel the pinch despite reported improvements. This disconnect highlights the need for practical solutions to reduce core living expenses.

Tom emphasized the importance of reducing energy costs and unnecessary spending. These measures could create a sustainable path toward lower inflation and greater financial stability.

To learn how inflation affects retirement planning, read the article “401K Rules in Retirement After Reaching Age 50“.

Small Business Growth: The Backbone of the Economy

Small businesses are a critical driver of economic growth. By addressing regulatory barriers and creating a supportive environment, 2025 could see significant advancements:

  • Eased Regulations: Reducing compliance costs could empower entrepreneurs to innovate and expand.
  • Access to Capital: Policies that encourage lending to small businesses can foster job creation and community development.

As small businesses thrive, the broader economy benefits. This highlights the importance of fostering a supportive ecosystem for entrepreneurs.

Long-Term Investment Planning for 2025

Tom’s reflections underscore the value of long-term investment strategies. Here are key takeaways for 2025:

1. Stay the Course

Volatility and uncertainty are part of investing. A disciplined, long-term approach often outperforms reactionary decisions.

2. Diversify Portfolios

With the market potentially broadening out, consider diversifying across sectors and company sizes. This strategy can mitigate risk and capture new opportunities.

3. Focus on Fundamentals

Invest in companies with strong financials and growth potential. Avoid chasing trends or speculative plays.

To explore investment strategies, read the article “The Power of FDIC Coverage and Competitive Rates“.

The Role of Politics in Economic Growth Predictions

While politics often dominates headlines, its impact on the economy can vary. Tom’s pragmatic approach offers valuable perspective:

  • Midterm Cycles Matter: Economic policies often face challenges during midterm elections, making the first two years of an administration critical.
  • Balancing Optimism and Realism: While new policies may inspire optimism, entrenched interests and systemic challenges can delay progress.

This balanced view helps investors navigate the intersection of politics and economics without succumbing to extremes.

To learn more about political impacts on financial planning, read the article “Medicare Open Enrollment 2024″.

Key Themes for 2025: Challenges and Opportunities

Tom’s insights highlight several themes that will shape the 2025 economic outlook:

  • Energy Policy: A renewed focus on affordable, reliable energy could ease inflation and drive growth.
  • Deregulation: Reducing bureaucratic barriers can empower businesses and stimulate innovation.
  • Broad Market Participation: Encouraging growth across diverse sectors will create a more stable and inclusive economy.

By understanding these dynamics, individuals and businesses can better prepare for the year ahead.

Plan for Retirement in 2025

Retirement planning remains a cornerstone of financial stability. With market trends and economic shifts in mind, consider these tips:

  1. Assess Your Portfolio: Ensure your investments align with your goals and risk tolerance.
  2. Consider Inflation: Factor in rising costs when projecting retirement expenses.
  3. Consult Experts: Work with financial professionals to navigate complexities and secure your future.

Conclusion

The U.S. economy in 2025 presents a mix of challenges and opportunities. From political shifts to evolving market dynamics, staying informed and adaptable will be key to success. Whether you’re an investor, business owner, or retiree, understanding these trends can help you make sound financial decisions.

You can schedule a complimentary 15min call with us on our website if you have questions from this article. If we can’t answer all your questions in just 15 minutes, we’ll guide you to the next steps to find the answers you need.

Schedule your complimentary call with us and learn more about 2025 Economic Considerations

April 8, 2024 Weekly Update

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We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage. Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for April 8, 2024

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE UPDATE

2024 1st Quarter Economic Update for Retirement

In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs speak with Andrew Opdyke about a 2024 1st quarter economic update and the expected economic changes in the second quarter. Andrew is a Certified Financial Advisor and Economist at First Trust Advisor. Listen in to learn how the current concentration performance and the 2024 elections will impact the market volatility and economy, respectively…
CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST
 
CLICK HERE TO WATCH ON YOUTUBE

2024 1st Quarter Economic Update for Retirement

Every three or four months, we have the privilege of having economist Andrew Opdyke on our show. He’s back to help us make sense of the economy ahead because, as we all know, 2023 ended better than many people expected. We had ups and downs throughout 2023, but the start of 2024 has proved to be rather positive. Will it stay that way?…
CLICK HERE TO READ THE BLOG

2024 1st Quarter Economic Update for Retirement

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Every three or four months, we have the privilege of having economist Andrew Opdyke on our show. He’s back to help us make sense of the economy ahead because, as we all know, 2023 ended better than many people expected.

We had ups and downs throughout 2023, but the start of 2024 has proved to be rather positive.

Will it stay that way? We asked Andrew to start our conversation about the Q1 2024 economic update.

What Andrew Has Seen in 2024 So Far in Q1 2024

We’ve seen some strong and weak data in 2024. At the end of 2023, the expectation was that the Fed would cut interest rates six times in 2024. Instead, we’re likely to see two or three rate cuts instead.

The Fed really wants to get inflation down to 2%, which is positive.

Personal consumption expenditure prices ticked higher last week on a year-on-year basis compared to the prior month. Inflation on the month was 3%, and there’s a lot going on here:

  • Russia-Ukraine war
  • Israel–Hamas war
  • Earlier last week, a boat collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.

All of this is impacting economic recovery.

If inflation remains higher than the 2% the Fed wants to achieve, interest rate cuts may wait even longer. With all of this said, the economy is growing, consumers are continuing to spend, and only time will tell how things will play out.

In Q1 2024, markets are up, with strength in AI and Nvidia and the hype around these new technologies.

While the markets did react slightly to the lack of rate cuts for a day or two, there has been less pushback than expected.

Why Did Markets Not See a Pushback with the News on Rate Cuts?

If you look back to last year, we’re kind of in a continuation phase. At the beginning of 2023, if you had told people that the Fed was going to raise rates and that profits were going to be flat or slightly down, very few people would have predicted that the market would rise 24% in 2023.

Instead, what we saw was people willing to pay more for certain company stocks.

There’s almost a disconnect between the logic of the market’s performance because the top 10% of companies have about 75% of the market cap. Growth is sort of condensed in these companies, and this is the highest we’ve seen it going back about 100 years.

If you look at smaller cap companies, they’re still trading at relatively normal levels.

The question is, what happens if market conditions impact these major stocks that account for 75% of the market cap and everyone starts selling? We could see a lot of volatility.

Right now, the market is moving on the idea of AI and its potential, but we haven’t really seen the profits from the technology to justify this. We’re in a phase where we’re seeing growth based on potential hopes and expectations rather than evidence that these technologies will be the game-changers companies predict.

Elections, Negative Conversations and the Year Ahead

Election season is always interesting because of negative conversations, uncertainty, and doubt. We just don’t know what policies will look like or how they’ll impact the market, so it leaves a big question mark for investors.

And while we have a presidential election every four years, the market does brace for the mid-term elections every two years, too.

Presidential elections do heighten concerns, but what we notice is that there is always emotion during one of these elections. You have people on all sides saying, “If this person wins, I’m moving to Canada,” and it showcases:

  • 50% of the country will be happy
  • 50% of the country will be unhappy
  • Everyone is going to go back to work

Regardless of who wins the election, you can be positive that Apple will be building another iPhone, and companies will continue producing products.

What the data tells us is that we’ll put a bunch of emotional energy into the election, and markets will have volatility before and during the election. But when the results come in, the market will tend to rise.

Once an election is over, companies tend to continue with their plans.

Short-term volatility is likely during an election, but after the “smoke clears,” markets tend to pick right back up, barring any major economic issues.

The Potential of a Recession and the Outcome

We may still see a soft landing and a potential recession, but it’s very unlikely to be a deep one. GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy grew 3% last year. Government purchases accounted for two-thirds of the growth, and we had a $1.8 trillion deficit.

Activity was led by healthcare and the government, which were responsible for roughly 50% of all job gains.

During normal times, these two account for 17% – 18% of all job gains.

When you dive into things, you’ll notice that there needs to be some healing to where the workers are. We haven’t seen a real transition back in certain sectors, such as tourism and restaurants.

Small- and medium-sized businesses are still facing an increase in rental costs, hiring, lending, and more.

Government support is really helping support the economy, but in other sectors, we are seeing companies adjust, such as in the tech sector, where layoffs are occurring. We’re at a point where there is a fine balance of government spending propping up the economy and the private sector readjusting.

We may see a weakening in employment, but if a recession does occur, it is likely to be a weak one.

Top Concerns for the Rest of 2024

If the Fed starts listening to the market and what the politicians want to happen, it poses a big risk. The Fed needs to stay the course and wait to cut rates until inflation is down enough because if they don’t, it can lead to inflation accelerating again.

Starting to cut rates too early will lead to short-term gains, but in the long term, we would need to raise rates again, restarting the whole cycle.

Spending remains too high.

The Fed lost $140 billion last year because they paid banks to hold onto the $200 billion the Fed gave to the banks a few years ago. We do need to get spending back in check, reevaluate and determine what is sustainable.

In an election year, parties want the economy to look its best. There is a concern that the wrong choices will be made to prop up the economy so that it looks good going into the election, even if that means long-term issues.

Excitement Outside of the Election

We’re seeing some broadening, which is always a positive thing. Earnings for the top 7 companies rose roughly 24% – 25%, but the rest of the 493 companies in the top 500 saw earnings decline 4%- 5%.

This year, we’re seeing earnings growth for the rest of the 493 companies.

You must remember that companies have had to do a lot and adapt to:

  • Supply chain issues
  • Worker shortages
  • Regulations
  • Interest rates

Many companies have found ways to be more productive and consistent with results. If the Fed continues to do its job and reduce inflation, we’re really putting these companies in an even better position in 2025.

Broadening out will ultimately be beneficial in the long term, even if the market isn’t reflecting it just yet.

Click here to listen to other episodes of our podcast.

 

March 18, 2024 Weekly Update

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We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage.

Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for March 18, 2024

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE UPDATE

Investing in Uncertain Times During Retirement – Election Edition

In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs discuss the possible impact of the presidential election on your retirement investments. Political uncertainty causes increased volatility in the short term, and the idea here is to maintain security and peace of mind regarding your retirement plan.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH ON YOUTUBE

Investing in Uncertain Times During Retirement – Election Edition

It’s that time that comes around every four years – presidential elections. There is one question that inevitably pops up: does the presidential election impact the stock market?  Retirement planning can provide peace of mind because you’ll prepare for the election’s influence on the market. 

CLICK HERE TO READ THE BLOG

Investing in Uncertain Times – Election Edition

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It’s that time that comes around every four years – presidential elections. There is one question that inevitably pops up: does the presidential election impact the stock market? 

Retirement planning can provide peace of mind because you’ll prepare for the election’s influence on the market. 

The Short-term Effects of a Presidential Election 

Volatility in the short term is certain. You have economists and investors clamoring to figure out this one important question: if this candidate gets into office, what will their policies do to the market? News headlines are also all over the place, and these headlines and breaking news stories that happen every day will cause volatility. 

If you look back to the 1900s, we know that the election won’t impact markets in the long term. 

Where will the world be after the election year? Where will the U.S. be? Investors will be asking these questions all year, and it does weigh on the market. 

Long-term Effects of a Presidential Election 

Since 1900, data shows that in the long term, a party change does not impact the markets. We do have up and down markets across the board, regardless of who is in office or if there’s a party change. 

If we were going to wrap this up right here, we would say yes: presidential elections do affect the market in the short term. 

But we’re not going to be wrapping things up just yet. 

What Can We Do to Have a Portfolio That Is Agnostic to the Election and Economy? 

Investing in uncertain times is best when your portfolio is agnostic, meaning that the economy and election will have little-to-no impact on the performance. Of course, we’re not saying that this is the “perfect portfolio.” 

We’re going to describe to you a way that we recommend structuring your portfolio for peace of mind. 

If you were to go out and speak to 100 financial planners, you would find that there are two big camps for portfolio management: 

  1. Passive: A passive portfolio is created on the basis of risk tolerance and is adjusted once in a while as your risk tolerance changes. The market will not have much bearing on the portfolio allocation. 
  1. Active: An active manager will adjust the portfolio regularly based on the current market environment. 

Both camps will argue that either the passive or active portfolio is best. Our growth portfolio combines both camps to offer what we believe is a well-rounded portfolio that you can rely on during good and bad times in the market. 

Inside Look into Our Growth Portfolio 

Our “growth portfolio” cuts an account in half, with the first theme being the strategic core, and the second theme being the tactical portion. 

The strategic core model is equity-based, and we buy ETFs. Our theme for the strategic core is based on where the market is going in the intermediate term. The strategic core will be invested at all times and consider where the market is and where it could be going based on the fundamental analysis. 

Today, the strategic core is invested in equities that tend to do better un an economic slowdown or recession. 

But as the sentiment behind a recession continues to weaken, we plan to make a shift based on fundamental analysis.  

Our tactical side of the portfolio considers what’s working well right now: 

  • Large Cap stocks 
  • AI and Technology 

The tactical portfolio looks at what’s working right now and is more active. We might make a trade every 4 – 6 weeks based on the trend changes that we see. We find that the tactical side of the portfolio works very well to mitigate risk during times of market deterioration. 

If you go back to when the market wasn’t performing well in 2022, the tactical was invested in lower-risk assets, such as government treasuries. 

When the market is working well, the tactical is invested in equities, but when there is some pullback, we can adjust the tactical portion of the portfolio. 

Portfolios based on Risk Appetite  

If you’re in or very close to retirement, you want stability, right? You’ve worked hard and you can’t stomach the dramatic ups and downs of the market any longer. We have many folks come in and want a portion of their portfolios to provide stability that the stock market cannot provide on its own. 

For these folks, we created the “Moderate Growth Portfolio.” 

For a moderate growth portfolio, we take 24% of the portfolio and put it into structured bank notes. What we do is: 

  • Approach big banks: Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Barclays, etc. 
  • Structure an instrument based on an annual percentage coupon rate 

At the time of this article in March 2024, the coupon rate is about 9% annualized. The goal of this type of portfolio is to lower the risk even further for the portfolio to have some fixed income coming in. 

We can also reduce risks further with the addition of fixed-income investments such as bond funds. 

The idea is that the portfolio is based on fundamentals (i.e., strategic core), what’s working right now (i.e., tactical), and stability (i.e., structured notes and bonds). If you’re reaching retirement, a portfolio like this provides you with peace of mind that your retirement is secure. 

Using this type of portfolio allows us to minimize risks by not putting all your eggs in one basket. 

We try to combine tried and true strategies so that if one is not working great, the other can help support the portfolio. 

If you want to learn more about our investment strategies or how we can help you minimize risk in your portfolio, feel free to reach out to us and schedule a call. 

July 31, 2023 Weekly Update

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We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage.

Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for July 31, 2023

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE UPDATE

This Week’s Podcast – Andrew Opdyke – 2023 Mid-Year Economic Update for Retirement

In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs speak with Andrew Opdyke about a 2023 mid-year economic update and the future. Andrew is a Certified Financial Advisor and Economist at First Trust Advisor.

Listen in to learn the expected and unexpected turn of events in the economy today and why inflation might not allow for rate cuts this year.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH ON YOUTUBE

This Week’s Blog – Andrew Opdyke – 2023 Mid-Year Economic Update for Retirement

Andrew Opdyke, an economist for First Trust, was back on our most recent podcast. For those who don’t know, Andrew comes on our show about once a quarter to update us and our community on recent economic events.

This time, he provides us with a great mid-year economic update that will help you when retirement planning.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE BLOG

Andrew Opdyke – 2023 Mid-Year Economic Update

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Andrew Opdyke, an economist for First Trust, was back on our most recent podcast. For those who don’t know, Andrew comes on our show about once a quarter to update us and our community on recent economic events.

This time, he provides us with a great mid-year economic update that will help you when retirement planning.

We’re going to:

  1. Summarize the first two quarters of the year
  2. Summarize what Andrew expects over the final two quarters of the year

If you want to listen to the podcast, you can find it right on our site here. Otherwise, we’ll cover the most important parts for you below.

What Happened in the Last Quarter and What are Andrew’s Thoughts?

We’re a little more than halfway through the year, and the first half of the year was more comfortable than the last quarter of 2022. Even the markets have been far less volatile, which is a good thing for investors. 

At the end of the first quarter of the year, we saw the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and a few domino pieces fell along the way.

Today, the Fed agrees that they have more work to do. We’re at the halfway mark of the year, and we’re seeing:

  • Inflation trend lower at 3% year-over-year, although Andrew believes this to be a little misleading
  • Energy prices are slowing down a bit
  • Taking out food and energy, we’re seeing inflation fall from 5.9% to 5%, which is hitting consumers quite a bit

Inflation has remained stubbornly sticky, and the Fed is expected to raise rates at the end of July and maybe another before the end of 2023. The question remains:

  • Will we see a recession?
  • Will employers begin laying people off?

We’re seeing manufacturing come down a bit, but construction activity is at record-high levels. Employment, at the time of this article, is still progressing and remains strong. Consumers are still spending.

Has everything transpired as expected?

For the most part, the economy is doing well and even the markets are stabilizing. There was sort of a concentrated performance in the tech industry at the beginning of the year.

Andrew believes that the market may get a little bumpier going into the end of the year.

Rates Hikes or Cuts: What Will We See?

Rate hikes and cuts are always top news stories and something we hear a lot about from our clients. Andrew believes that at the end of July, the Fed is likely to raise rates again. He expects an additional rate hike before the end of the year.

At the mid-point of August, he expects that the CPI will dictate the future choices from the Fed.

CPI was from activity almost a year ago. We’ll see some bumps in the newest CPI due to the Ukraine/Russian war.

The Fed has changed pace often this year because the ability to guide and navigate this ever-changing environment is evolving. What the Fed doesn’t want to do is repeat the mistakes made in the 70s and stop inflationary measures too fast.

Andrew anticipates the rates will have one or two hikes before the end of 2023 and sometime in 2024, rate hikes may follow. As inflation begins to trickle in the right direction, the Fed will begin to lower rates.

Most countries are seeing similar trends as the United States, but we are seeing:

  • Germany has rising inflation
  • United Kingdom’s inflation remains flat

Energy price rises in the US can put some pressure on the UK economy. At this time, we’re not seeing a Central Bank that we can say, “Hey, they’re doing everything right.” Every Central Bank is working through these ups and downs.

Recession Risk at the Mid-point of 2023

Recession is something we’ve been talking about for a while now, and with everyone spending like normal, it’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. Andrew estimates that there is an 80% chance that we’ll see a recession.

When will this recession happen?

No one knows. We may see a recession in 2023 or 2024. We’re seeing facilities being built today without orders in the pipeline in the coming year. What does this mean? Businesses are sort of holding back a recession, but something needs to happen before orders run out for the momentum to remain.

Reading through banking reports, it looks like consumer savings may fall back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2023. Less money in the bank may lead to consumers spending less, which also raises the risk of a recession.

If we hit a point where consumer spending falls and rates are high, it will likely push us into a recession.

Can we avoid a recession? Possibly. However, it’s a very delicate time. We’re even seeing the markets perform very well this year.

2023 Mid-year Economic Update: Stock Markets

No one would have guessed that going into 2023, the market would be where it is today. Technology and AI helped lift the market at the start of the year, but Andrew is seeing the market broaden a bit.

We’re seeing 3% – 4% of market growth happening from outside of the tech sector.

Most people started the year with expectations that the market would go down, but it hasn’t really happened. Instead, we’re seeing people paying not based on earnings but higher multiples from these companies. We’re seeing the top 10 tech companies trading at 30 times their earnings. The top 11 – 50 companies are trading at 16 – 18 times their earnings.

A sustainable bull market will require some of these non-tech companies to have strong earnings and returns.

Based on GDP and employee output, we’re not seeing the rise in productivity that tech companies expected with AI. Many of these technologies take time to evolve and be adopted by users, which could cause some of these tech stocks to come back down.

Foreign Economies

China reports not seeing the bounce back that they expected of 5% growth, which is low for the country. Apple and Tesla moving to India is changing the economic landscape. With the country likely to have the world’s largest population soon, it’s very likely that India will begin to grow rapidly.

Top-down leadership works well in short bursts, but communist countries have been, traditionally, difficult to maintain long-term.

For example, the tech sector has been the backbone of the US for the past 20 years, but China has had a lot of difficulties in this arena. China is known to replicate ideas and innovations, which means they continued to fall behind on tech that others had already released.

Finally, when companies in China started to innovate, the communist government started to put the clamps on them because it didn’t look good for the government when these companies were acting independently.

We saw this with tech investments and Alibaba. Investors have been scared away from China due to this clamping down.

We’re also unsure of where China’s economy stands because the country has been known to provide inaccurate information. Andrew expects that over the next 10 – 30 years, China will struggle to grow.

Geopolitically, the world may look very different in the next 5 – 10 years.

Forward-looking Questions: Concerns for the Second Half of 2023

As we move into the end of the year, there are some major concerns, especially with a lot of the big company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. If confidence wanes, we can see some pullback while P/E goes back to normal levels.

Commercial and office real estate loans are coming up.

We are seeing a lot of foreclosure talks that can hit local and regional banks. Large banks are less susceptible to these potential risks of foreclosure.

Russia and Ukraine will remain a major question mark. China’s threat to Taiwan will remain critical to the market, especially if things intensify, such as an increase in training in the area.

Andrew believes the biggest headwinds are:

  • P/E for many companies is too high
  • Money is coming out of the system

In 2020/2021, we saw the government inject a lot of money into the system. PPP loans, COVID checks, treasuries trying to hold money – all of this can have an impact on the economy and cause growth to slow heading into December.

Forward-looking Questions: Positives for the Second Half of 2023

Manufacturing investment will help the country, especially bringing back semiconductor manufacturing. Investments like this will roll out for years to come and will boost the economy.

We’re seeing a lot of things today that can help us see a boom in the future. 

Andrew is optimistic that we’re a lot closer today to a recovery than just a few months ago. It’s very unlikely that we’ll need massive rate hikes of 500 – 550 basis points again. We just need to get over the last hurdle, and then we can see growth.

Improvements in education, clean water, manufacturing and so on will drive us forward 18 months from now.

Once we get through the tough stuff, we’ll have a very bright future.

S&P 500 Forecast

Andrew thinks that we’re likely to see a pullback in the market because the markets got ahead of themselves. Evaluations and P/E are too high, but this can change with some major unforeseen growth factors, such as AI reaching its expected potential much faster than expected.

People will need to reevaluate to see if they’re overpaying for something that is underperforming with the tech stocks that are trading well after what they should be, in many cases.

Do you want to talk to us about any of these key points in the mid-year economic update?

Schedule a 15-minute consultation with us today.

3 Questions for Investing Retirement Money in 2022

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Investing in 2022 is scary because of one word that we’re all hearing: inflation. Today, we’ve had the pleasure of discussing how to secure your retirement through smart investments. One topic that we’ve seen come up a lot is investing retirement money.

But we want to go a bit deeper than just one question to help you better understand retirement and investing.

3 Questions for Investing Retirement Money in 2022

1. How Will Inflation Affect My Retirement?

In 2021 and 2022, we’ve seen some very high inflation years. We’re seeing 7% and 8% inflation, and when stimulus packages from the coronavirus hit, it led to the printing of a lot of money. When more money enters the economy, inflation spikes.

What we’re experiencing right now is a result of this additional money flooding the market.

When you’re dealing with retirement planning, you’re thinking long-term – often 30 years. Of course, planning out your retirement should account for inflation, but we can’t assume that inflation levels will stay at 8% because it’s far too high.

In fact, any plan that you run is unlikely to withstand 30 years of compounded inflation at 8%, meaning you wouldn’t have any money left. Honestly, inflation doesn’t bother me as much as it does other people right now because:

  • Over the last 10 – 12 years, inflation has been very low at 1% to 1.5%
  • Looking at historical data over the last 100 years, inflation is 3.2%

So, when you look at everything, we see that inflation was:

  • 11.3% in 1979
  • 13.5% in 1980
  • 10.3% in 1981

In between many periods, we see 5%, 8% and 9% inflation. However, in 2009, we hit a period of deflation where we had –4% inflation. While living in the moment of higher inflation, it’s very difficult to understand averages because we’re seeing sticker shock everywhere we go.

But based on the law of averages and what we’ve seen in the past, inflation should come back down.

A retirement financial plan that is actively managed will account for inflation and take steps to help combat it if it’s a long-term problem. However, while inflation may remain for the next few years, it will eventually fall back down.

2. Should I Be Investing When the Market is Uncertain?

People are concerned with investing right now. As financial advisors, we know that there are times, like when the pandemic hit, that we should be invested. However, the answer to this question isn’t easy.

Things can change from one week to the next, where investing in the market is good or bad.

Starting in 2022, we saw a lot of volatility. Fast-forward to recent weeks, and we’re amid Ukraine and Russia at war. That has thrown a bit of turbulence into the market.

Market volatility is good and bad.

If the market falls, it may be a great time to invest heavily. Right now, we’re about 70% cash because we needed to take a step out of the market. We still have 30% of funds in the market. If there is no demand or too much supply, you should consider exiting the market.

A few key points:

  • If you’re like us, you believe there are times to be invested and times to be on the sidelines
  • If you don’t care whether your account drops 30% to 40%, stay in the market

You should be invested in market volatility, but you need to be ready to pull money out and sit on cash, too.

3. Are Bonds a Good Investment Right Now?

Bonds are in a rough spot right now. If you read the news headlines on bonds, we’re in a bear market where bonds have struggled for a few years. How do we handle this? In traditional markets, you invest in:

  • Bonds
  • Stocks

Interest rates are going up, and bonds also take a hit when this happens. Between February 2021 to 2022, the benchmark index for bonds fell 5% to 5.5%.

Are bonds a good investment right now?

There’s a small place for them, but we don’t want to get locked into a bond for a long period of time because conditions for bonds simply aren’t favorable at this time. You may find a few short-term options to fill the gap, though.

In fact, we do suggest some bond alternatives to our clients.

But we want you to realize that in the investment world, there are:

  1. Risks
  2. Liquidity
  3. Safety

Unfortunately, you cannot have all three. There are no investments that are risk-free and 100% safe. Instead, the best we can do is to limit risks, increase safety and have some form of liquidity.

Often, alternatives offer some form of safety and low risk, but you’ll give up some liquidity.

In fact, in one of our upcoming podcasts, we’re going to go deep into bond alternatives. The topic is vast, and it’s one that we want to cover in detail for you.

Click here to access our complimentary video titled: 4 Steps to Secure Your Retirement.

The Difference Between Asset Allocation and the Strongest Assets

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When working with a financial planner or advisor, it’s important that you’re aligned on how you want your money invested. There are many different investment strategies and what you might be comfortable with may not be your advisor’s preference. So, how can you ensure that your money will be managed how you like?

The first step is to have a basic understanding of investment strategies. This way, you’ll know what’s more suited to your personality and how you want your investments taken care of.

In this post, we’re explaining the differences between two investment strategies, asset allocation and strongest assets. We share the fundamentals of each, why people choose them, and how to figure out if they’re appropriate for your money management style.

You can watch the video on this topic at the top of this post, to listen to the podcast episode, hit play below, or read on for more…

What is asset allocation?

Asset allocation is the most common way of investing. It’s a preferred method for two reasons.

  1. Asset allocation is relatively easy to do
  2. There’s very little maintenance, unlike other investment strategies

If you’re familiar with the buy and hold strategy or buying a well-diversified portfolio, then you’ll already have an idea of how asset allocation works.

For example, if you have money to invest, and decide to put it in the stock market, you might distribute it to more than one area. You may want to put a portion of your money in stocks, such as large cap stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Google, or mid cap or small cap stocks. There are also sectors that you might want to get involved in. Financials, healthcare, technology, and energy are all popular sectors that many people invest in. Finally, you could decide to buy up some bonds and fixed-income investments.

When you add all of these investments together, you get an investment pie. You can use this to visualize where all of your slivers are in the market, as they may all be in different areas. Essentially, this investment method is asset allocation.

Why asset allocation is a long-term strategy

With asset allocation, you’re advised to hold these investments for the long term. The idea is, if you hold these investments for 5, 10, 15+ years, then the market will go up, and so will all your different pieces of the pie.

Now, let’s look at how this method performed in a tumultuous year, such as 2020. Overall, large cap stocks did well, but mid and small cap stocks were greatly affected. So, if you held a mixture of large, mid, and small cap stocks, the increase in large cap stocks may make it look like your portfolio performed adequately. If you hold a diversified portfolio, you’re always going to have slivers that outperform others. The aim of this strategy is to wait long enough that, eventually, the pie as a whole increases over time.

Many of us first encounter this kind of strategy when we get our first job and 401(k). Often, people pick different investments in this scenario. A popular choice is target-date funds, which create an asset allocation based on how much longer you have to work. This will then adjust according to your age.

In terms of maintaining an asset allocation, it requires very little attention. Your advisor may rebalance the account quarterly or even once a year. This strategy is an easy way to “set it and forget it.”

Understanding your investment risk tolerance

It’s important to note that you can still lose money with an asset allocation strategy – even if you have a very conservative portfolio. The idea is that if you stick with it and stay invested, then you will make your money back. The question is, can you stomach the negative?

This is where understanding your risk tolerance comes into play. Knowing what downside number you’re comfortable with can help you figure out what investment strategy is right for you. We demonstrate this by using real figures. For example, instead of theoretically asking you if you’re happy with a 20% loss, we’d ask if you’re happy to lose 20% of $1million, so, $200,000. This puts your loss into perspective.

Remember that if you’re using an asset allocation strategy, you do not sell when the market is crashing. You have to be able to withstand the financial impact of a pandemic, a financial crisis, or anything else that might be thrown at you. If you sell when the market goes down, you defeat the purpose of this strategy. Your advisor will tell you to hang in there.

What is the strongest asset strategy?

A strongest asset strategy differs from asset allocation because it allows you to sell whenever those assets are no longer strong.

When you’re thinking about investing using this strategy, you need to picture the entire stock market world. This includes equities, stocks, companies, bonds, fixed income, cash options and then you’ve got some alternatives. Once you’re looking at them altogether, you can start to see who’s winning the race.

Now, usually equities win the race because they have growth. Bonds are stable and make a good rate of return, but they may not always be the strongest option. Cash, on the other hand, hardly moves. However, if there’s a scenario where the market is crashing and equities and bonds are pulling back, cash could be the front runner because it’s not moving backward.

You then use this analysis to see where the strongest area is to invest. You could invest 100% of your portfolio in equities, but it doesn’t mean you have to stay there. You could move that 100% from equities to bonds, and again from bonds to cash, depending on market performance.

Strongest asset: a more active approach

If you decide to invest 100% of your portfolio in equities, you can take the same approach again. This time looking at the top performers in the equity world. In 2020, for example, large cap technologies were winning the race. This sector thrived during the pandemic, with mid and small caps struggling. So, we shifted all of our portfolios to accommodate this. In January 2021, mid and small caps started to come back, so we shifted again.

A strongest asset strategy does require more maintenance than asset allocation. You need to be actively managing your portfolio and prepared to make changes. We want to make a good rate of return for our clients, so we watch the market every day. If the market starts to change, then we make decisions, such as selling, to protect our clients’ investments from a downturn.

Which strategy suits your personality?

So, if you’re building out an investment portfolio or considering your investment options, think about which strategy suits your personality more. Do you prefer the idea of buy and hold (asset allocation), or do you want to keep a closer eye on your money and how it’s performing (strongest asset)?

When you decide which option is for you, the next step is to find a financial advisor who can help you manage your money this way.

To learn more about preparing your finances for the future, check out our complimentary masterclass, 3 Keys To Secure Your Retirement. The free interactive webinar gives you more information on how to build a retirement income plan and shares valuable money management tips and advice. Get it here.

How to Prepare For Retirement

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Your retirement years are considered the golden years of your life, giving you the chance to relax and spend time with your loved ones. However, in order to maximize your experiences, you need to start preparing for retirement today.

 

If you are in your 60s, developing a thorough plan for your retirement is essential. That is why we have put together our top five tips to help you prepare.

 

 

  1. Identify your retirement starting point
    • The first thing that you need to do is to identify your starting point. To do this, you need to collect as much information as possible such as bank accounts, income, and outgoings. With this information, you can then break this down into three key categories:
      • Essential Needs (such as rent, food, etc.)
      • Wants (such as those dream trips with your family)
      • Legacy (the money you want to leave behind or donate)
    • By breaking this information down into these categories, you will be able to have a clear idea of the amount required for your retirement. When developing this information, you should also take into consideration your social security, the age you would be looking to retire, and when you want to start taking your pension.

 

  1. Know your destination
    • Once you have your starting point, you should then think about the destination and everything you want to achieve during your retirement. Think about the goals that you want to achieve and how you want to live. Do you want a new car every few years? Do you want to become a member of a golf club? An annual holiday with the family, perhaps?
    • Whatever it might be, make sure you know what you want to ensure you can fulfill this golden period of your life.

 

  1. Build a retirement roadmap
    • With your start point and destination created, you now need to build your retirement roadmap. This is the plan that you will follow as you save towards, and live through, your retirement.
    • When building your retirement roadmap, it is really important that you know your income and outgoings. One thing that many people forget to do when building their roadmap is to factor in taxes and the rate of inflation. Without doing this, you can quickly find your savings erode faster than you were expecting.

 

  1. Plan for retirement roadblocks
    • Even the best-laid roadmap can experience a roadblock, so it is crucial that you factor unexpected costs and issues into your plan. For example, another market crash such as that experienced in 2008 or a sudden deterioration in your health can see your savings depleted.
    • That is why it is vital that you constantly monitor your roadmap, making those small adjustments to keep you on track. When it comes to healthcare, you should also consider carefully whether you will be able to self-insure or whether you will need an insurance policy in place.

 

  1. Retirement cruise control
    • While for the most part, careful planning and preparation can mean your retirement can effectively run on cruise control. However, just like you would in real-life when driving a car, you still need to be ready to take over as the road ahead changes.
    • From a potentially volatile market and inflation to economic and political impacts, keep your eyes on the road ahead and adjust accordingly.

 

 

Are you ready to prepare for retirement?

If you are thinking about your retirement and want to start taking steps today to ensure you are in the best possible position, then we are here to help you. Our ‘4 Steps to Secure Your Retirement’ mini-series has been designed to take you through the preparation stages step-by-step, ensuring you are able to be in the best possible place.

 

Want to find out more? Get started today!

How Fixed Index Annuities Grow Your Money With Low Risk

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Money accumulation is paramount as you approach retirement. However, high-risk, high-reward strategies may no longer suit your approach, as many retirees become increasingly risk-averse.

If you have savings that you want to grow risk-free, there are some options available to you. CDs, bonds, and money markets are safe, low-return ways to increase your savings over time. But fixed index annuities could provide a much greater return and are entirely risk-free.

In this post, we share the benefits of a fixed index annuity and explain how insurance companies avoid risk while growing your money.

Annuities are complex; however, they can be beneficial to a retirement portfolio if you understand them. That’s why we’ve created our “Annuities – Why Ever Use Them” series, to answer all the common questions about the pros and cons of annuities.

You can watch the video on this topic at the top of this post, to listen to the podcast episode, hit play below, or read on for more…

 

This post is the fourth installment in the series, so we encourage you to listen to the first three episodes to learn more about annuities. Find them on our Secure Your Retirement podcast, read the posts on our blog, or follow the links below to watch the episodes on our YouTube channel:

1. Annuity types – a quick recap

As we dive into the details of how annuities work, it can be useful to have a foundational knowledge of different annuity products. For a quick, high-level overview, here are the main types of annuities and their key characteristics:

  • Immediate annuity: is a quick and simple way to get an immediate income stream. You give money to an insurance company, which redistributes it back to you as income. For example, if you bought a $100,000 immediate annuity, the insurance company could begin giving you $500 a month for the rest of your life.
  • Deferred annuity: is tax-deferred with some surrender penalties. Deferred annuities can be either variable or fixed and must be committed to for a certain period.
  • Variable annuity: you can use a variable annuity to invest in the stock market. Typically, variable annuities are used to buy mutual funds. There are fees, and a lot of risk involved as the market can fluctuate and so can your annuity’s value.
  • Fixed annuity: is tax-deferred with a principal guarantee, so unlike a variable annuity, you cannot lose any money. However, your money can still grow. Fixed annuities can be broken down into two types, traditional and index.
  • Traditional fixed annuity: similar to a CD, you lock your money in a traditional fixed annuity for a set period at a fixed interest rate. It’s a risk-free way to grow your money.
  • Fixed index annuity: this grows your money using market links. You may be tied to an index like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. You’ll receive a portion based on the index’s performance over an annual point to point reset. This means if you start your annuity on January 1st 2021, how the index performs between January 1st 2021 and January 1st 2022 will determine what interest will be credited to your annuity.

We’re going to focus on fixed index annuities in this post. We’ll break down how insurance companies can guarantee your principal even when your annuity is linked to market performance and explain why it’s a win-win for you and insurance companies.

 

2. How to earn interest on fixed index annuities

There are two ways to earn interest on a fixed index annuity, either through a cap or a participation rate.

A cap prevents your principal from reducing due to market volatility. So, if you set a cap at 5%, and your annuity’s index earns 10%, then your annuity will only grow up to 5% in that year. However, if the market falls, you cannot earn a negative rate of return, meaning that your money will not decrease below your guaranteed principle or any increases from previous years.

Participation rates are similar, but instead of using a cap, they increase your principal by a percentage of how the index performs. For example, if your index earns 10% and your participation rate is 50%, then you’ll earn a 5% rate of return.

We dedicated an entire podcast episode to explaining how caps and participation rates work in detail. To learn more about earning interest on fixed index annuities, please watch the episode.

 

3. How insurance companies guarantee your principal risk-free

Caps, participation rates, and a guaranteed principal mean that fixed index annuities can look almost too good to be true, and you may question how they benefit the insurance company.

Some of the most popular questions we get about fixed index annuities are, “If the index drops 20%, does the insurance company have to me back the equivalent of my loss? or “If my cap is 5%, and the index earns 10%, then does the insurance company keep the extra 5%?”

The answer to both questions is no. So how do insurance companies guarantee a rate of return on your principle without putting themselves at risk?

Here’s an example. You have $100,000 to put into an annuity with an insurance company. The insurance company manages billions of dollars and earns 3% on its total assets. They want more people to invest with them, so they try to attract new policyholders with a return rate of 2.5%. This might not be the most attractive rate to all potential investors, so they take the 2.5% and create a futures contract.

A futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price in the future. For example, if you wanted to buy a company’s share at $100, but the current price is $150, you could set up a futures contract to only buy a share when the price hits $100.

In the case of an index fund annuity, the insurance company takes the 2.5% and puts it into a futures contract related to your index. This futures contract might state that if the index increases, then the insurance company will participate. So, if the index goes up, then the insurance company can provide you with your agreed participation rate. However, if the index is down, then that 2.5% is lost, but it has no negative impact on your principal.

Caps work in a very similar way. If your cap is 5%, then the futures contract will expire at 5%. This will give your annuity a 5% rate of return, and the insurance company will not participate above 5%, meaning that they won’t be pocketing any extra money if the index continues increasing.

If the index is down in either case, then neither you nor the insurance company will lose anything, but you won’t earn a rate of return that year. The worst an index fund annuity can do is earn a zero rate of return, but there’s potential to earn a much greater amount, risk-free.

 

4. Why we recommend fixed index annuities for retirees  

Compared to bonds, CDs, and money markets, fixed index annuities are a good alternative to safely accumulate your money. They have no-risk and are much safer than investing in the stock market, but they have more earning potential than lower-rate products or accounts.

We highly recommend adding a fixed index annuity to your retirement portfolio, but only if you understand how they work.

 

We appreciate that annuities are complex and can be difficult to fully understand. If you have any questions, please reach out to us. We can discuss how annuities can work for your individual retirement plan and answer any further questions you may have. Start by booking a complimentary 15-minute call with a member of our team today.

How Are You Going to Stay on Top of Your Finances in 2021?

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How are you going to stay on top of your finances in 2021?

Financially planning for retirement can feel like a lot of work, especially if you have multiple moving parts to your money. Dealing with 401Ks, IRAs, Social Security, and RMDs can become overwhelming as the year gets busier, so we recommend taking stock of your finances early and planning ahead.

The beginning of the year is a great time to review your finances but knowing where to start is challenging. So, we’ve created our retirement and financial planning checklist.

Read on to discover the nine key areas you should consider for the upcoming year. We also point out some key changes and information for 2021, so you can start this year as securely as possible.

1. Review your 401K, traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and HSA contributions

If you’re earning income, you should review your accounts and plan how much you want to contribute to each one this year. Do you have a goal for each? How much will you need to contribute to get you there?

Bear in mind that contributions may be limited, so you might need to adjust your plans and payroll accordingly. For example, the contribution limit for 401Ks in 2021 is $19,500. However, if you’re over 50 years of age, you can qualify for the ‘catch-up contribution’, increasing the $19,500 limit by an additional $6,500. This also applies to 403Bs and 457 plans.

Roth IRA accounts have a much lower contribution limit of $6,000, with an additional $1,000 for those over 50.

We’ve detailed the difference between Roth IRAs and traditional IRAs before, but to recap, the main differences are:

  • A Roth IRA is tax-free assets: contributed to after you’ve paid tax on the money – these have income limitations, so if you earn over a certain amount, you will not be able to contribute
  • A traditional IRA is pre-tax assets: contributed to before you’ve paid tax on the money – no income limitations

To learn more about the pros and cons of Roth IRAs vs traditional IRAs, read this post.

Once you are aware of your accounts’ limitations, we advise you plan your contributions for the year. This way, you can ensure you’re on track to achieving your long-term money goals without having to continually review your accounts’ statuses.

2. Update your beneficiaries

Life sometimes moves so fast that it can be hard to keep up. New grandchildren, marriages, or other life changes may affect who you want as a beneficiary.

It’s important to stay on top of your different accounts and which beneficiaries are associated with them. Your accounts and associated beneficiaries should align with your overall estate plan and life insurance to avoid confusion.

Updating beneficiaries can be easily done online or with a signature on a form. It should only take a few minutes and is something we highly recommend putting in order while you have the time.

3. Consolidate your accounts

If you’ve previously changed employment, you may well have more than one 401K plan open. We often speak to clients who have two, three, or four 401Ks with past employers, that they’ve completely forgotten about – and that have substantial balances in them!

Moving existing 401Ks into a traditional IRA is a fantastic way to consolidate your accounts. It’s completely tax-free, with no risk, penalties, and typically no fees. If you hold multiple traditional IRAs, we also advise consolidating these into just one account.

By reducing the number of unnecessary accounts, managing your money will become more straightforward and less stressful.

4. Assess your mortgage rate

It’s very unlikely that mortgage rates will reduce further, so we recommend taking advantage of them while you can. Now is a great time to refinance your house or any investment properties you have a loan on. An advantageous rate could lower your payments, giving you greater monthly cash flow, or help you pay off the loan faster.

We spoke to a Loan Officer with 15 years’ experience about the benefits of refinancing in our podcast episode ‘Tammi Rowe – Planning Your Mortgage and Retirement’. To find out more about what refinancing could do for you, listen to the episode.

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5. Plan for emergencies

You might be faced with a financial opportunity, for example, paying off your mortgage, but it’ll leave you with less cash in the bank than you’d like. Should you do it? Or should you build up your ‘emergency fund’ first?

Having cash reserves in case of emergencies is necessary. But you don’t always have to choose between keeping lots of cash in the bank or paying off a substantial loan.

One tip we give our clients is to open an equity line of credit. There can be a minimal fee to open it, but there’s no interest if you don’t have any balance. This means that if you spend your cash reserves on something like paying off a mortgage, you have easy access to cash, as an equity line of credit comes with either a debit card, a checkbook, or both.

An equity line of credit is only available to those still working, so if you want an emergency fund for the future, we urge you to set one up while you still qualify. You won’t need to make any payments, and it won’t gain any interest, so long as the balance is zero.

6. Consider how and when you’ll take your RMDs

If you’re turning 72 in 2021, pay close attention. RMDs or Required Minimum Distributions were optional in 2020, however, the rules are changing for 2021, and if you turn 72 this year, you will have to take your RMDs this year and every year going forward.

Your individual RMDs are based on your IRAs’ combined balance, so there isn’t one set figure for everyone. You can spend your RMDs, or you can reinvest them into another brokerage account, but they must leave your IRA and cannot go into another IRA.

Bear in mind that money in a traditional IRA is pre-tax. So, when it leaves the IRA as an RMD, it’s treated as income and will be taxed.

There is no rule when you should take your RMDs, but you must start taking them before December 31st from the year you turn 72. Some people choose to take it monthly, like a paycheck, and others take it as a lump sum at the beginning or end of the year.

If you don’t need to take your RMD and don’t want to pay tax on the money you don’t need, you can make a qualified charitable deduction once you’re aged 70 and a half. This is where you direct your RMD straight from your IRA to a charity of your choice. This way, your RMD leaves the IRA but isn’t claimed as income, making it tax-free.

You can also do this with a portion of your RMD. For example, if your RMD is $10,000, and you want to instruct $5,000 to a charity and keep $5,000 for yourself, you only have to pay tax on the $5,000 you keep.

7. Apply for Social Security

If you’re planning on taking Social Security in 2021, it can be a long process. Right now, there are thousands of people applying every single day, so we advise applying two to three months ahead of when you want to start receiving your Social Security benefits.

You can apply as early as three months before the date that you want to start receiving them, so if you’ve already decided it’s part of your financial plan for 2021, don’t wait. Plan ahead, make the phone calls, and fill out the paperwork as soon as you can so that you can receive your benefits when you need them.

8. Research your Medicare options

Health insurance has never been more vital, so putting a plan in place as soon as possible is recommended. There’s a lot to think about with Medicare, from how your income affects your premiums to when the open enrollment periods are. If you’re turning 65 or going to be receiving Medicare, we encourage you to research your options.

We spoke to Medicare Specialist, Lorraine Bowen, on our podcast, and she answered all of our Medicare questions, including what it covers and how to find out if you’re entitled to it. To learn more about Medicare, listen to this episode.

9. Understand your income plan

When you stop working, you might find it more challenging to keep track of your income. There can be many moving parts in retirement with different income streams and RMDs, and it could leave you with an unnecessarily high tax bill or with fewer cash reserves than you’d like.

Now is the perfect time to adjust your income to ensure that you’re not taking too much or too little. We use a couple of different software programs that help us automatically track income on a month-by-month basis to find a monthly income figure that’s best suited to you. If you want to learn more about how we do this, reach out to us.

Those are our nine key points for preparing your finances for retirement in 2021. By completing this checklist, you’ll be giving yourself peace of mind that you’re on track to achieving your financial goals throughout the year.

We’re going to delve deeper into more of these topics as the year progresses, but if you have any urgent questions about any of the subjects we discussed in this post, please get in touch. You can contact us, or if you want to discuss your retirement goals with a member of our team, we invite you to schedule a 15-minute complimentary call with us.