July 8, 2024 Weekly Update

We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage.

Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for July 8, 2024

Andrew Opdyke – 2nd Quarter Economic Update for Retirement

Radon and Murs speak with Andrew Opdyke as he provides his expert analysis on the current economic landscape and what to expect moving forward. They discusses the divergence within the economy, the issues with the banks, the recession and market volatility, and much more.

 

2nd Quarter Economic Update for Retirement

As we navigate through 2024, the economic landscape is evolving in intriguing ways, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s strategic moves, the unique dynamics of an election year, and the ripple effects of global events. Join us as we discuss the latest trends, market performances, and economic forecasts, providing you with essential insights to stay ahead in these transformative times.  

Economic Update: 2nd Quarter 2024

Welcome to the Secure Your Retirement Blog’s 2nd Quarter Economic Update! As we navigate through 2024, the economic landscape is evolving in intriguing ways, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s strategic moves, the unique dynamics of an election year, and the ripple effects of global events. Join us as we discuss the latest trends, market performances, and economic forecasts, providing you with essential insights to stay ahead in these transformative times.  

By covering topics like the Fed’s surprising rate cut predictions and the enduring strength of key market sectors, our goal for this update is to equip you with the knowledge to make informed financial decisions and secure your retirement future. 

 The Fed’s Mid-Year Checkup 

 One of the most notable events as we reached the halfway point of 2024 was the Federal Reserve’s mid-year meeting in June. Entering the year, the Fed had signaled plans for three rate cuts, and the market anticipated as many as six. However, the Fed’s June meeting painted a different picture. Despite earlier expectations, inflation had not moved as anticipated, and economic growth continued. Consequently, the Fed adjusted its forecast, now planning just one rate cut for the year.  

Interestingly, the Fed projected that key economic indicators like the unemployment rate and core inflation would remain stable. They anticipated an unemployment rate of about 4%, exactly where it was during their meeting, and core inflation to end the year at 2.8%, again mirroring the current rate. This status quo forecast suggests a delay in the rate cut cycle, with higher rates persisting a bit longer. This development is a critical aspect of our 2nd Quarter Economic Update, as it shapes expectations for the remainder of the year. 

 The Election Year Factor 

 With 2024 being an election year, there’s speculation about how political factors might influence the Fed’s decisions. The Fed aims to maintain political independence and typically avoids making significant moves around election time. Therefore, September is the first potential date for a rate cut, provided there are notable changes in economic fundamentals. However, the most likely scenario for a rate cut this year appears to be December. 

 It’s essential to recognize that election years often bring heightened emotions and volatility. Despite the debates and political maneuvering, the long-term impact on markets tends to be minimal. Historical data shows that markets move forward regardless of the party in power. Therefore, while elections dominate headlines, their short-term impact on economic fundamentals is often overstated. 

 Market Performance and Future Outlook 

 Despite the ongoing challenges with inflation and geopolitical issues, the stock market performed well in the first half of the year. If the second half mirrors the first, we could see a notably strong year for the markets.  

However, the question remains: will this trend continue? Market movements are often driven by a mix of earnings expectations, company fundamentals, and investor emotions. 

 For instance, there’s considerable excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with significant projects like the Intel plant in Ohio and the TSMC plant in Arizona. While these developments are promising, they also introduce a degree of caution, as market optimism sometimes outpaces actual progress. 

Historically, market movements have been influenced by interest rates and borrowing costs. Currently, we see higher-than-average market valuations, which suggests that future market performance will need strong fundamental support. Investors should be mindful of potential volatility and focus on long-term growth areas. 

  Recession Concerns 

 Entering 2024, there was considerable talk of an impending recession. Now, halfway through the year, the question remains: is a recession still a possibility? 

 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a recession is determined by multiple indicators, such as: 

  • employment 
  • consumer spending 
  • industrial production 

 While some areas have seen declines, consumer spending and employment indicators remain relatively stable. 

 The data shows that while we are not currently in a recession, there are signs of economic slowing. For instance, manufacturing orders have decreased, and sectors like auto sales and home sales are down. However, the strength of the economy, particularly driven by retirees and baby boomers, continues to support overall growth. 

 While a recession is not off the table, the likelihood of a severe downturn seems moderated by ongoing consumer activity and targeted investments in growth areas. 

 Geopolitical Issues 

 Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Ukraine, Russia, and Israel, continue to impact the global economy. The disruption in the Red Sea area and the Suez Canal has led to increased shipping costs, affecting inflation and import prices. While Europe bears the brunt of these costs, the ripple effects are felt globally, including in the U.S. 

 The geopolitical landscape adds complexity to the Fed’s efforts to manage inflation. External factors like shipping disruptions and geopolitical unrest can drive inflation higher, complicating domestic policy decisions. Resolution of these conflicts could also ease inflationary pressures. 

 Social Security and Retirement 

 As a retirement planning-focused blog, we must address concerns about Social Security. Current projections indicate that without intervention, the Social Security fund could face significant shortfalls by 2033, potentially reducing benefits to 70-80% of their current levels. 

 However, there is hope. The next administration will likely prioritize addressing fiscal issues, including Social Security. Possible solutions include adjustments to retirement ages and tax policies. While changes are inevitable, those nearing or in retirement are likely to see their promised benefits, with more significant adjustments targeting future beneficiaries. 

 The U.S. remains in a strong demographic position compared to many other countries, with continued growth expected. While addressing Social Security requires difficult decisions, the nation’s substantial net worth provides a solid foundation for tackling these challenges. 

 Employment and Economic Strength 

 As we look forward to the remainder of the year, employment trends are a key concern. Early signs indicate potential rises in unemployment, particularly among younger demographics. If this trend continues, it could signal broader economic weakening. 

 However, the resilience of the economy, particularly driven by older demographics less impacted by borrowing costs, provides a buffer. The ability for people to find jobs and support their families remains a critical indicator of economic health. 

 Looking Ahead 

 In conclusion, our 2nd Quarter Economic Update highlights several key themes: the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts, the minimal long-term market impact of election-year politics, and ongoing geopolitical and social security concerns. While uncertainties remain, focusing on predictable elements and long-term growth areas can provide stability. 

 As we move through the year, the balance between economic caution and optimism will continue to shape our outlook. The resilience of the U.S. economy, supported by targeted investments and demographic strengths, offers a foundation for navigating these challenges. By staying informed and focusing on long-term strategies, we can better secure our financial futures. 

If you want to understand all this a little better, we offer a complimentary phone call that you can schedule with us on our website. If we can’t answer all your questions in just 15 minutes, we’ll guide you to the next steps to find the answers you need.  

Schedule your complimentary call with us and to learn more about holistic wealth management. 

March 18, 2024 Weekly Update

We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage.

Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for March 18, 2024

Investing in Uncertain Times During Retirement – Election Edition

In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs discuss the possible impact of the presidential election on your retirement investments. Political uncertainty causes increased volatility in the short term, and the idea here is to maintain security and peace of mind regarding your retirement plan.

 

Investing in Uncertain Times During Retirement – Election Edition

It’s that time that comes around every four years – presidential elections. There is one question that inevitably pops up: does the presidential election impact the stock market?  Retirement planning can provide peace of mind because you’ll prepare for the election’s influence on the market. 

Investing in Uncertain Times – Election Edition

It’s that time that comes around every four years – presidential elections. There is one question that inevitably pops up: does the presidential election impact the stock market? 

Retirement planning can provide peace of mind because you’ll prepare for the election’s influence on the market. 

The Short-term Effects of a Presidential Election 

Volatility in the short term is certain. You have economists and investors clamoring to figure out this one important question: if this candidate gets into office, what will their policies do to the market? News headlines are also all over the place, and these headlines and breaking news stories that happen every day will cause volatility. 

If you look back to the 1900s, we know that the election won’t impact markets in the long term. 

Where will the world be after the election year? Where will the U.S. be? Investors will be asking these questions all year, and it does weigh on the market. 

Long-term Effects of a Presidential Election 

Since 1900, data shows that in the long term, a party change does not impact the markets. We do have up and down markets across the board, regardless of who is in office or if there’s a party change. 

If we were going to wrap this up right here, we would say yes: presidential elections do affect the market in the short term. 

But we’re not going to be wrapping things up just yet. 

What Can We Do to Have a Portfolio That Is Agnostic to the Election and Economy? 

Investing in uncertain times is best when your portfolio is agnostic, meaning that the economy and election will have little-to-no impact on the performance. Of course, we’re not saying that this is the “perfect portfolio.” 

We’re going to describe to you a way that we recommend structuring your portfolio for peace of mind. 

If you were to go out and speak to 100 financial planners, you would find that there are two big camps for portfolio management: 

  1. Passive: A passive portfolio is created on the basis of risk tolerance and is adjusted once in a while as your risk tolerance changes. The market will not have much bearing on the portfolio allocation. 
  1. Active: An active manager will adjust the portfolio regularly based on the current market environment. 

Both camps will argue that either the passive or active portfolio is best. Our growth portfolio combines both camps to offer what we believe is a well-rounded portfolio that you can rely on during good and bad times in the market. 

Inside Look into Our Growth Portfolio 

Our “growth portfolio” cuts an account in half, with the first theme being the strategic core, and the second theme being the tactical portion. 

The strategic core model is equity-based, and we buy ETFs. Our theme for the strategic core is based on where the market is going in the intermediate term. The strategic core will be invested at all times and consider where the market is and where it could be going based on the fundamental analysis. 

Today, the strategic core is invested in equities that tend to do better un an economic slowdown or recession. 

But as the sentiment behind a recession continues to weaken, we plan to make a shift based on fundamental analysis.  

Our tactical side of the portfolio considers what’s working well right now: 

  • Large Cap stocks 
  • AI and Technology 

The tactical portfolio looks at what’s working right now and is more active. We might make a trade every 4 – 6 weeks based on the trend changes that we see. We find that the tactical side of the portfolio works very well to mitigate risk during times of market deterioration. 

If you go back to when the market wasn’t performing well in 2022, the tactical was invested in lower-risk assets, such as government treasuries. 

When the market is working well, the tactical is invested in equities, but when there is some pullback, we can adjust the tactical portion of the portfolio. 

Portfolios based on Risk Appetite  

If you’re in or very close to retirement, you want stability, right? You’ve worked hard and you can’t stomach the dramatic ups and downs of the market any longer. We have many folks come in and want a portion of their portfolios to provide stability that the stock market cannot provide on its own. 

For these folks, we created the “Moderate Growth Portfolio.” 

For a moderate growth portfolio, we take 24% of the portfolio and put it into structured bank notes. What we do is: 

  • Approach big banks: Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Barclays, etc. 
  • Structure an instrument based on an annual percentage coupon rate 

At the time of this article in March 2024, the coupon rate is about 9% annualized. The goal of this type of portfolio is to lower the risk even further for the portfolio to have some fixed income coming in. 

We can also reduce risks further with the addition of fixed-income investments such as bond funds. 

The idea is that the portfolio is based on fundamentals (i.e., strategic core), what’s working right now (i.e., tactical), and stability (i.e., structured notes and bonds). If you’re reaching retirement, a portfolio like this provides you with peace of mind that your retirement is secure. 

Using this type of portfolio allows us to minimize risks by not putting all your eggs in one basket. 

We try to combine tried and true strategies so that if one is not working great, the other can help support the portfolio. 

If you want to learn more about our investment strategies or how we can help you minimize risk in your portfolio, feel free to reach out to us and schedule a call. 

November 20, 2023 Weekly Update

We do love it when someone refers a family member or friend to us.  Sometimes the question is, “How can we introduce them to you?”   Well, there are multiple ways but a very easy way is to simply forward them a link to this webpage. Here are this week’s items:

Portfolio Update:  Murs and I have recorded our portfolio update for November 20, 2023

Andrew Opdyke – 2023 End-of-Year Economic Update

In this Episode of the Secure Your Retirement Podcast, Radon and Murs speak with Andrew Opdyke about a 2023 end-year economic update and the expected shift in the economy in 2024. Andrew is a Certified Financial Advisor and Economist at First Trust Advisor. Listen in to learn about the impact of the concentration of investments in the top ten companies and when the market broadening will happen. You will also learn about things to consider when expanding your investment portfolio in 2024…  

2023 End-of-Year Economic Update

Andrew Opdyke is back with us to get his insight on the broad economy. He’s been on our show multiple times, and he’s returned with his 2023 end-of-year economic update that everyone should listen to at least once. Whether you’re trying to secure your retirement or in the middle of retirement planning, it’s always important to keep a pulse on the market.